{"id":9721,"date":"2013-08-12T11:47:55","date_gmt":"2013-08-12T15:47:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.umw.edu\/greatminds\/?p=9721"},"modified":"2013-08-12T11:47:55","modified_gmt":"2013-08-12T15:47:55","slug":"mathematical-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.umw.edu\/greatminds\/2013\/08\/12\/mathematical-predictions\/","title":{"rendered":"Mathematical Predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/umwwebmaster.wpengine.com\/greatminds\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2013\/08\/H1N1-Pandemic-Infographic.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"9791\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.umw.edu\/greatminds\/h1n1-pandemic-infographic\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/www.umw.edu\/greatminds\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2013\/08\/H1N1-Pandemic-Infographic.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"1616,1252\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"H1N1 Pandemic Infographic\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/www.umw.edu\/greatminds\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2013\/08\/H1N1-Pandemic-Infographic-300x232.jpg\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/www.umw.edu\/greatminds\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2013\/08\/H1N1-Pandemic-Infographic-1024x793.jpg\" class=\"size-large wp-image-9791 alignright\" alt=\"H1N1 Pandemic Infographic\" src=\"http:\/\/umwwebmaster.wpengine.com\/greatminds\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2013\/08\/H1N1-Pandemic-Infographic-1024x793.jpg\" width=\"488\" height=\"377\" srcset=\"\/\/www.umw.edu\/greatminds\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2013\/08\/H1N1-Pandemic-Infographic-1024x793.jpg 1024w, \/\/www.umw.edu\/greatminds\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2013\/08\/H1N1-Pandemic-Infographic-300x232.jpg 300w, \/\/www.umw.edu\/greatminds\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2013\/08\/H1N1-Pandemic-Infographic-768x595.jpg 768w, \/\/www.umw.edu\/greatminds\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2013\/08\/H1N1-Pandemic-Infographic-1140x883.jpg 1140w, \/\/www.umw.edu\/greatminds\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2013\/08\/H1N1-Pandemic-Infographic.jpg 1616w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 488px) 100vw, 488px\" \/><\/a>What if there was a better way to track and predict the spread of worldwide epidemics like H1N1 flu and HIV before they happened?<\/p>\n<p>At the University of Mary Washington, Casey Howren \u201814 answered this question when she developed a computer program that uses mathematical formulas to predict the progress of global epidemics.<\/p>\n<p>Meeting on a daily basis with her mentor, <a title=\"Leo Lee Faculty Expert\" href=\"https:\/\/www.umw.edu\/faculty\/faculty-member\/llee3\/\" target=\"_blank\">Mathematics Professor Leo Lee<\/a>, to help guide her research, the <a title=\"UMW Mathematics Department\" href=\"http:\/\/cas.umw.edu\/math\/\" target=\"_blank\">mathematics<\/a> and sociology double major looked at the current ways that the Centers for Disease Control and the World Health Organization track epidemics, and she realized that she could improve the process.<\/p>\n<p>Right now, those organizations track epidemics as they are happening. They follow how quickly epidemics spread in real time and then predict how they will continue in the future. Howren\u2019s algorithm-based computer program takes this process a step further by predicting how an epidemic will spread from the first infected person before it ever happens. In the end, Howren discovered that her program may create more accurate results than current tracking methods.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_9851\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-9851\" style=\"width: 398px\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\"><a href=\"http:\/\/umwwebmaster.wpengine.com\/greatminds\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2013\/08\/Casey-Howren-and-Prof-Leo-Lee.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"9851\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.umw.edu\/greatminds\/casey-howren-and-prof-leo-lee\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/www.umw.edu\/greatminds\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2013\/08\/Casey-Howren-and-Prof-Leo-Lee.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"710,493\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;Norm Shafer@2013&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"Casey-Howren-and-Prof-Leo-Lee\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;Casey Howren met with her research mentor, Mathematics Professor Leo Lee, on a daily basis while working her computer program. &lt;\/p&gt;\n\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/www.umw.edu\/greatminds\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2013\/08\/Casey-Howren-and-Prof-Leo-Lee-300x208.jpg\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/www.umw.edu\/greatminds\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2013\/08\/Casey-Howren-and-Prof-Leo-Lee.jpg\" class=\" wp-image-9851  \" alt=\"Casey Howren met with her research mentor, Mathematics Professor Leo Lee, on a daily basis while working her computer program. \" src=\"http:\/\/umwwebmaster.wpengine.com\/greatminds\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2013\/08\/Casey-Howren-and-Prof-Leo-Lee.jpg\" width=\"398\" height=\"276\" srcset=\"\/\/www.umw.edu\/greatminds\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2013\/08\/Casey-Howren-and-Prof-Leo-Lee.jpg 710w, \/\/www.umw.edu\/greatminds\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2013\/08\/Casey-Howren-and-Prof-Leo-Lee-300x208.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 398px) 100vw, 398px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-9851\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Casey Howren (left) met with her research mentor, Mathematics Professor Leo Lee (right), on a daily basis while working on her computer program.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>As part of her research, Howren looked at several epidemics, including the H1N1 virus responsible for the 2009 pandemic, and how they could have affected the UMW student body without the help of vaccines. She discovered that the epidemic would have spread to nearly two thirds of the student population over the course of a year.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhen I came up with the hypothetical examples where I used the Mary Washington student body as the population, it made me see how relevant this type of research is \u2013 it\u2019s not just research that is happening for the sake of being published. Instead it&#8217;s relevant in all of our lives,\u201d said Howren.<\/p>\n<p>And this is just the beginning of the rising senior\u2019s research. According to Lee, this research has the potential to keep growing through exploring epidemic interventions like vaccines and education. Howren plans to present her findings at several conferences in Maryland and Virginia over the next year<\/p>\n<p>\u201cShe hopes she will be able to show that mathematical models are important tools to predict the general epidemic process and establish the controlling strategies of communicable diseases,\u201d said Lee.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Student develops computer program to predict progress of medical epidemics.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":9901,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"umw_cb_additional_links":[[]],"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_advisory_expires_time":"","_advisory_meta_include":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[65,6,12],"class_list":{"0":"post-9721","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-show","8":"tag-alumni2014","9":"tag-mathematics","10":"tag-sociology","11":"entry"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.3 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - 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