Republican presidential candidates Ben Carson and Donald Trump are tied at 18 percent each among Virginia registered voters, according to a new survey sponsored by the University of Mary Washington’s Center for Leadership and Media Studies.
Sen. Marco Rubio received the support of 10 percent of the state’s registered voters surveyed in advance of the state’s March 1 primary, as compared to 7 percent for New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, 6 percent for former Florida Governor Jeb Bush and 5 percent each for Ohio Gov. John Kasich and Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, received 4 percent support, while former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Carly Fiorina each received 3 percent and former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore stood at 2 percent.
“Virginia voters demonstrate once again that the state is up for grabs,” said Stephen Farnsworth, professor of political science at UMW and director of the university’s Center for Leadership and Media Studies. “Trump and Carson, the two outsider candidates who have done so well nationally, also lead the pack in the Old Dominion.”
Virginia voters do not register by party and can therefore vote in either primary. Among registered voters who described themselves as Republicans or as leaning Republican, Carson had 27 percent support, as compared to 25 percent for Trump and 11 percent for Rubio. The other GOP candidates all received less than 10 percent in the survey.
On the Democratic side, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leads Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders by a 32 percent to 25 percent margin among Virginia registered voters, with former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley a distant third with eight percent support.
Among registered voters who described themselves as Democrats or as leaning Democratic, Clinton received 58 percent support, as compared to 32 percent for Sanders and 4 percent for O’Malley.
The telephone survey of 1,006 adult Virginians, including 814 registered voters, was conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International (PSRAI) from November 4 to 9, 2015. About 60 percent of the respondents were contacted via cellphone and about 40 percent via landline. The interviews took place before last week’s presidential nomination debates and before Friday’s terrorist attacks in Paris.
With respect to the general election next November, the survey suggests a number of close potential contests.
“Looking ahead to the possible 2016 match-ups, we can see that once again Virginia will be as purple as purple can get in presidential politics,” Farnsworth said.
The hypothetical questions, which included former U.S. Sen. Jim Webb of Virginia as an independent candidate, also revealed Webb retains considerable support in his home state.
If Trump were the Republican nominee, he would have the support of 33 percent of registered voters surveyed, as compared to 41 percent for Clinton and 16 percent for Webb. Trump would do better against Sanders if he were the nominee, with 36 percent of registered voters saying they would favor Sanders, 35 percent backing Trump and 19 percent supporting Webb.
If Carson were the Republican nominee, he would have the support of 41 percent of registered voters surveyed, as compared to 38 percent for Clinton and 13 percent for Webb. Carson had the support of 39 percent of registered voters in a hypothetical match-up with Sanders, who was backed by 35 percent. Support for Webb in that possible contest stood at 17 percent.
If former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush were the Republican nominee and if a frustrated Donald Trump launched an independent presidential campaign, the survey suggests Clinton would have a very easy 2016 in Virginia. In that possible three way contest, 42 percent of registered voters said they would support Clinton, 27 percent would back Trump and 22 percent would favor Bush.
“This survey demonstrates that there a lot of voters out there who support Trump regardless of whether he runs as a Republican or an independent,” Farnsworth said.
Among registered voters, 35 percent said they were Democrats, 33 percent said they were Republicans and 28 percent who said they were independent.
For the full survey, see the Topline.
Contact: Stephen J. Farnsworth at 703-380-3025 or email him at sfarnswo@umw.edu
The Fall 2015 Virginia Survey, sponsored by University of Mary Washington (UMW), obtained telephone interviews with a representative sample of 1,006 adults living in Virginia. Telephone interviews were conducted by landline (402) and cell phone (604, including 303 without a landline phone). The survey was conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International (PSRAI). Interviews were done in English by Princeton Data Source from Nov. 4 to 9, 2015. Statistical results are weighted to correct known demographic discrepancies. The margin of sampling error for the complete set of weighted data is ± 3.5 percentage points.